Armed Coalition Escalates Attacks in Iran's Sunni Southeast
A new coalition of opposition groups has claimed a string of armed strikes in Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman, raising questions about Tehran's control over a marginalized Sunni region.
A coalition of Iranian opposition groups has claimed responsibility for a series of armed attacks in the southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman, adding to instability in a region where a majority Sunni population has long complained of discrimination under the Shiite clerical government in Tehran.
The coalition, known as the People's Fighters Front, has claimed six strikes in recent months. The group took shape in December 2025 through an amalgam of Baloch nationalist organizations and the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl. According to the Human Rights Activist News Agency, at least 63 armed incidents were recorded across the two provinces between March 31 and October 10, 2026, a sharp escalation that left at least 94 people dead and 33 injured. Official sources reported 87 fatalities and 10 injuries.
The violence has accelerated markedly in recent weeks. The rights agency recorded 18 incidents in the final 18 days of its reporting period, more than in any previous full month. On October 14, the coalition stunned the authorities with the assassinations of women members of the Basij paramilitary, including a commander, and a police officer in Sistan and Baluchistan. Days earlier, regime-controlled media reported that Nosrat Eftekhari, deputy for cultural and social affairs of the provincial law enforcement command, was killed by a roadside bomb in Zahedan.
Mardo Soghom, an Iran expert who has written extensively about the Islamic Republic, said the Sunni unrest can stretch the government's military and internal security capabilities and have a psychological impact on its forces, in addition to what they experienced during the 40-day operation by the United States and Israel. He said the armed groups would not be able to establish control of the southeast, but they can seriously weaken the government's hold. Whether these forces are receiving assistance from the Islamic Republic's adversaries, whether Gulf Arab states or even Israel and the United States, remains an open question, he added.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said there have been periodic cycles of unrest in Sistan and Baluchistan over the years and that what is now being witnessed is an uptick in such activity. He noted that the current commander of the Revolutionary Guard's ground forces, Mohammad Karami, formerly served as governor of the province and commanded Guard forces there, and that his experience was one reason he was elevated to the post in 2025 given the sensitive security situation. Brodsky said he does not see any imminent threat of such a seizure of control, but that preserving Iran's territorial integrity is a red line for Iranians, especially in the opposition, and that this needs to be understood in Western capitals.
Khalilullah Balochi, a Baluch activist and journalist, said the activities of these groups are not new; what is new is the intensification of attacks. Navid Mohebbi, a former Persian media analyst for the State Department's public affairs bureau, said the newly formed front has carried out a series of relatively successful attacks against mid-level officials and security personnel in recent months, drawing public attention. At a time when the government is executing protesters daily, the killing of certain mid-ranking security and military operatives has been met with some satisfaction among segments of Iranian society, he said.
Mohebbi warned, however, that the Iranian public remains deeply cautious and largely distrustful of such groups. Two major concerns underpin this distrust: the possibility of separatist ambitions and the influence of radical Islamism, which is fundamentally at odds with the increasingly secular outlook of Iranian society. He sees encouraging signs in the coalition's recent statements, which unlike the rhetoric traditionally associated with similar groups contain no explicit references to Baluch separatism. Instead, the coalition has identified its primary objective as dismantling the system of Velayat-e Faqih, or Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, and liberating the country from its oppression, declaring that it seeks an Iran for all Iranians.
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