European Intelligence Chiefs Warn Moscow May Test NATO Within Months
Intelligence officials from the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Estonia offer differing assessments of the Russian threat as Poland and France raise alarms and Ukraine launches one of the war's largest aerial attacks on Russia.
European intelligence chiefs are warning that Russia may be preparing to test NATO's resolve, with one senior official suggesting a possible attack could come in «months, not years». The assessments, delivered in separate interviews, reflect a widening split between Western and Baltic intelligence services over how imminent the threat really is.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that intelligence estimates suggest Russia could launch a drone or missile attack on NATO territory in the coming months, part of an effort to demonstrate that the alliance's Article 5 mutual-defense guarantee is «more theoretical than practical». French President Emmanuel Macron called Tusk's warnings «solid and well documented» and convened party leaders and candidates for the 2027 presidential election in Paris for an emergency meeting that addressed, among other topics, intelligence on the growing Russian threat.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech security service BIS, said that beyond intensified drone activity, a small-scale incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia could be part of the Kremlin's plans. «It is possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign», he said in a rare interview at the agency's Prague headquarters. He said such a scenario could unfold in «months, not years», while adding that «many people are doing everything they can to make sure this does not happen».
Officials from the three Baltic states, which border Russian territory, were more cautious about the prospect of an invasion or other serious escalation, citing Moscow's limited resources tied up in Ukraine and warning that emphasizing the possibility of an attack could play into the Kremlin's hands. «We do not see indications of an imminent attack», said Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's VDD state security service, in an interview in Riga. He acknowledged signs that Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe but said it remains unclear whether the plans are simply part of a destabilization strategy. «It remains an open question whether they have direct and concrete plans or whether it all fits into the context of their general efforts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society», he said.
Estonian officials pushed back against what they described as social media panic in recent days over a possible attack. «If there is reason to fear an attack, be sure: we will say so clearly. Until then, keep calm, continue your work and support Ukraine», Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov wrote on X. Mežviets said that overall it is a good thing that Western Europe has awakened to the Russian threat. «Before 2022, we constantly warned our partners in Western Europe about the Russian threat, but most of the time our voices were not heard. In 2022, our partners' approach changed. They said it seemed the Balts and Poles had been right», he said.
Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka would discuss specific intelligence about alleged Russian plans for the coming months, nor comment on whether a surprise visit to Moscow last month by CIA Director John Ratcliffe — during which he stopped in Riga — was partly intended to warn the Kremlin about the dangers of launching an attack against NATO. After the visit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumors of a Russian attack on NATO. «It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation», he said.
The fears of escalation come as the UN General Assembly meets in New York and as air attacks intensify on both sides of Russia's war against Ukraine. Kyiv struck Moscow and other Russian regions with hundreds of drones and missiles in the early hours of Sunday, one of the largest aerial attacks of the war. Ukraine has destroyed much of Russia's oil infrastructure, targeting refineries and other facilities in recent months. Moscow has frequently claimed that the supply of weapons, intelligence, and military advisers to Ukraine makes those countries parties to the conflict.
Many Europeans are likely to recall the period before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when U.S. officials repeatedly warned that Russia was preparing to invade while the Kremlin repeatedly denied it. As the war approaches its fifth winter, U.S.-led efforts to secure peace in Ukraine show no sign of success.
