Belarus has quietly disabled relay stations on its border with Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to strike them, marking a significant shift in the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and exposing the vulnerability of the Lukashenko regime. The stations were used by Russian forces to correct drone strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, and their removal follows a direct ultimatum from Kyiv.
The incident began in late June when Zelensky publicly warned that Ukraine would target relay stations on Belarusian territory if they continued to assist Russian military operations. Within days, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed that Minsk had complied, though he noted that one station was briefly reactivated on June 29. “I think they will not turn them on again,” Syrsky said. “They realize they should not do that.”
The relay stations, described by military experts as signal transmission equipment for Russian drones flying along the northern border of Ukraine, had been a key element of Russia’s ability to strike targets near Kyiv. According to Dmitry Kuznetsov, a military expert at Meduza, since late 2025 Russian drones from the Bryansk region began flying directly over the Belarus-Ukraine border, and the presence of functioning relay stations on Belarusian soil was the only plausible explanation for their navigation capability.
The episode has forced Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko into a diplomatic scramble. After the ultimatum, Lukashenko publicly acknowledged that he had hosted unnamed representatives from Kyiv for talks. He then traveled to Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence and to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Analysts interviewed by Novaya Gazeta Europe believe that Lukashenko feels weak in the face of Kyiv and uncertain that Russia can protect him, prompting him to negotiate a new position for Belarus in the configuration of the war.
Lukashenko’s rhetoric has shifted notably in recent weeks. In late May, he accused Zelensky of using drugs and threatened that an attack on Belarus would escalate the war to a new level. But by mid-June, in an interview with Al Arabiya, he struck a more conciliatory tone, apologizing to Zelensky for his harsh words. “If Vladimir Alexandrovich was offended, I apologize to him for those words,” Lukashenko said. “Maybe I should not have spoken so sharply, given that he is at war.”
However, the apology was qualified. Lukashenko continued to portray Zelensky as a young and inexperienced politician dependent on the West. More significantly, he admitted that Belarus is “very vulnerable militarily” to the Ukrainian armed forces. “We understand perfectly well that our main life-support facilities—production and logistics—will come under attack,” he said. “As they have stated, they already have 500 such targets on the territory of Belarus planned.”
The reference to 500 targets echoed a statement by Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, and signaled that Minsk took the threat seriously. This marked a departure from earlier dismissive responses to similar warnings.
Zelensky, for his part, reacted coolly to Lukashenko’s apology. “If it’s something personal—he apologized, and thank God, so to speak,” Zelensky said. He then set a new condition: “On his territory, along two regions bordering Ukraine, there is equipment that corrects fire against the Ukrainian population. He can remove it? Why talk about not wanting to be in the war? Let him remove that equipment, let him turn it off.”
The standoff has revived debate about whether Belarus will directly enter the war. In April, Zelensky warned that Russia was building roads and artillery positions near the border, attempting to drag Belarus into the conflict. Belarusian propaganda has consistently denied these claims, instead blaming Western partners for provoking tensions.
Lukashenko’s diplomatic maneuvers suggest he is seeking to balance between Moscow’s demands and the need to avoid a direct confrontation with Ukraine. His visits to Putin and Xi indicate a desire to secure guarantees that Russia will defend Belarus if attacked, while also exploring alternative support from China. The outcome of these talks remains unclear, but the relay station incident has demonstrated that Lukashenko’s room for maneuver is shrinking.
For now, the immediate crisis has been defused, but the underlying tensions remain. The relay stations may be offline, but the broader question of Belarus’s role in the war—and the extent of Moscow’s commitment to its ally—continues to shape the region’s security landscape.