President Donald Trump has signaled a major shift in U.S.-Turkey relations, calling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a friend and a respected leader ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara. Trump told reporters on June 24 that he is attending the summit primarily because of Erdoğan, hinting at closer defense cooperation between Washington and Ankara. The remarks underscore a striking change from just a few years ago, when Turkey was widely regarded as one of NATO’s most difficult allies.
Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2019 led to its expulsion from the multinational F-35 fighter program and the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency the following year. Despite these unresolved disputes, Turkey has become increasingly difficult for the alliance to sideline as NATO confronts Russia, instability across the Middle East, and an increasingly contested Black Sea. Analysts and former officials say Turkey’s strategic value has surged in recent years.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey, who served as Trump’s special representative for Syria during his first term, said Turkey is crucial to the Trump administration. He noted that Trump’s affinity for Erdoğan is genuine but also reflects a broader strategic rationale. Jeffrey described Turkey as essential to maintaining the U.S. perimeter around Eurasia because of its military strength, geographic position, and willingness to project power. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly confirmed that Trump will hold a bilateral meeting with Erdoğan at the NATO summit.
NATO is returning to the fundamentals of collective defense after decades focused largely on counterterrorism, placing renewed pressure on allies to bring significant military capability to the table. Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu said the nations bringing hard-power capability to NATO are going to get VIP treatment. NATO agreed to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP for all allies in 2025, after years of Trump complaining that European allies were ripping off the U.S. with weak defense spending.
Turkey fields NATO’s second-largest military after the United States. It controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles, borders Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and has built one of NATO’s largest defense industries. Rich Outzen, a former State Department advisor and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said there is no real security for NATO without full integration of Turkey. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instability across the Middle East, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria have only heightened Turkey’s strategic value.
Jeffrey argued that Turkey has been essential to Ukraine staying in the fight, citing Ankara’s enforcement of the 1936 Montreux Convention, which prevented additional Russian naval reinforcements from entering the Black Sea. Turkey also provided early delivery of Bayraktar drones to Kyiv and served as an intermediary between Ukraine and Russia. Jeffrey said you cannot contain Russia in the Black Sea without Turkey. The collapse of Assad’s regime also brought Washington and Ankara into closer strategic alignment after years of disagreements over Syria.
Jeffrey said Turkey played a central role in backing the opposition that ultimately toppled Assad, dealing a major blow to both Iran and Russia. He described the loss of Syria as one of Iran’s big losses in the past three years, attributing it largely to Erdoğan. However, not everyone is convinced that Turkey’s growing strategic value should outweigh concerns about its foreign policy. Critics argue that Turkey’s foreign policy has increasingly diverged from that of many NATO allies under Erdoğan.
Critics point to Turkey’s vocal support for Hamas following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, its continued possession of the Russian-made S-400 system, and its efforts to deepen ties with non-Western blocs such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where China and Russia play leading roles. Sinan Ciddi, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Turkey is the only NATO member that has applied for membership in entities such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. He also argued that Turkey is unique within the alliance in openly supporting Hamas while seeking expanded access to advanced U.S. defense technology.
Erdoğan has repeatedly defended Hamas and rejected efforts to classify the group as a terrorist organization, putting Turkey at odds with Washington and many other NATO allies. Critics argue that position complicates efforts to deepen U.S.-Turkey defense ties, despite Trump’s personal affection for the Turkish leader. The summit in Ankara will test whether the personal chemistry between the two leaders can overcome the policy differences that remain.