Latino Voters Shift Back to Democrats Ahead of US Midterms, Poll Finds
New NBC News/Telemundo polling shows 69% of Latino voters disapprove of President Trump's performance, with Democrats holding a 59-35 advantage in congressional preference — a significant swing from 2024.
Latino voters are turning away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the US midterm elections, according to new polling from NBC News and Telemundo. The survey of 800 registered Latino voters across the United States, conducted from September 21 to 28, found that 69 percent disapprove of Trump's job performance, compared with just 27 percent who approve.
The findings suggest a significant reversal from the modest gains Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024. Asked which party they would prefer to control Congress, 59 percent of respondents said Democrats, while 35 percent said Republicans. Going into the 2024 elections, Democrats held only a 12-point lead among Latino voters, indicating that Trump and the GOP have lost some of the ground they gained with the demographic.
Specific policy areas appear to be driving the shift. Roughly 66 percent of those surveyed said Trump's deportation policies have gone too far, and 75 percent said he has mishandled the economy and the cost of living. The poll was conducted via phone interviews and online surveys through text message, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Despite the recent swing back toward Democrats, the GOP still shows substantial improvement among Latino voters compared with a decade ago. In 2016 and 2018, Latino support for a Republican-controlled Congress stood at just 21 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The current 35 percent preference for Republicans, while trailing Democrats significantly, remains well above those earlier figures.
The data is the latest in a series of polls indicating that Democrats hold a large advantage heading into the midterm elections. In the House of Representatives, Democrats are projected to win 215 seats compared with 201 for the GOP, meaning the party needs only three more victories out of 19 possible toss-up races to clinch a majority. Republicans would need to win at least 17 of those races.
Trump, speaking at a political rally in Dayton, Ohio, on Saturday night, dismissed the unfavorable polling numbers. «These fake polls, they don't account for one thing. They don't account for the fact that Trump is out campaigning,» he told a cheering crowd. «They never thought this was good. They never thought this was going to happen.» He added: «With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot and got record-setting votes and record-setting victory. We've won every battle. We've defeated every hope. We've overcome every threat. And now we are on the cusp of beating the communists, socialist, radicalized lunatics and villains once and for all. We're going to put them down once and for all.»
The poll's findings carry particular weight for a midterm cycle in which control of Congress hangs in the balance. Latino voters, long viewed as a pivotal demographic in states such as Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Florida, could prove decisive in close races. The shift back toward Democrats suggests that economic concerns and immigration enforcement policies are outweighing any inroads Republicans had made with the community in recent election cycles.
For religious and community leaders who work closely with Latino congregations, the polling data reflects broader anxieties about family separation, economic stability, and the moral direction of the country. Many Latino voters are motivated not only by material concerns but also by questions of dignity, belonging, and the treatment of immigrant communities. The survey's findings indicate that these concerns are translating into political preferences that currently favor the Democratic Party.
With the midterms approaching, both parties will be watching whether the trend holds or whether Republicans can recover ground among a voting bloc that has proven increasingly competitive in recent years. The poll's margin of error of 3.5 percent leaves room for movement, but the overall direction is clear: Latino voters are swinging back toward Democrats at a moment when the GOP had hoped to consolidate its gains.
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